December 2025 - Week 4 Edition

The Wimps on Wall Street Keep “Chasing” Gold’s Big Rise

On February 27, 2025, Goldman Sachs sounded bullish, saying that gold would rise another 8% in 2025 to reach a shocking new high at … Wait for it … “$3,100 a Troy ounce by the end of 2025, analyst Lina Thomas writes in the team’s report.” The team’s previous projection was for gold to rise to $2,890.”

As the year progressed and gold kept soaring, Goldman Sachs and most other big Wall Street investment banks timidly projected small increases, followed by updates to higher prices, but gold kept rising. They were behind and not willing to risk a bold prediction but that cost their clients money. Chasing gold is a pretty cowardly way to “follow the markets” rather than leading clients into a far more profitable trade than they expected.

And now, on December 19, 2025, “The Street” reported the latest “bold call” by Goldman Sachs for 2026, writing “Goldman Sachs typically doesn’t make bold calls lightly but its latest gold price target forecast should make investors stop and take notice. Goldman is now expecting gold prices to jump to roughly $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, carrying on a historic run.

“For perspective, that represents a 13% increase with spot gold prices trading at $4,323.71 per ounce at about 3 a.m. EST on Friday, Dec. 19. Goldman points to a fundamental shift that’s driving the global economy. It argues that central banks are not simply dabbling in gold anymore, while falling interest rates continue to impact investor preferences. In other words, the sharp bump in gold prices might not be a short-term reaction, but more of a longer-term shift….”

Welcome to the party, Goldman Sachs.  Now, why not predict $6,000 instead of just $4,900?!

Bank of America was somewhat bolder at the start of 2025, predicting $4,000 by year’s end, and now they are topping Goldman Sachs once again by predicting $5,000 gold in 2026. At least their investors only lost out on a few hundred dollars on gold’s move rather than over a $1,300 an ounce for Goldman’s clients.

JP Morgan Chase is even bolder, predicting this month that “Prices are expected to push toward $5,000/oz by the fourth quarter of 2026, with $6,000/oz a possibility longer term.” They cited an expectation for central banks to up their purchasing levels to 585 metric tons per quarter, more than double their lofty averages in the past four years. Overall, JP Morgan is the most bullish among the five largest major investment firms following gold as listed here top to bottom.

We’ll see how soon these banks nudge their targets higher after gold breaks $5,000. Which wimpy bank will be the first to look beyond these “baby steps” and predict a radical realignment of global banks and investors to fuel a rise to $6,000 or higher gold prices ahead? If there was ever a time to say, “I told you so, it is now.” I predicted gold’s historic run with Steve Forbes in October 2023, when gold was $1,900 an ounce. Our clients made far greater returns on their investments by following me, and my team of experts, than those following the advice of “The Big Banks.” If you want expertise in the precious metals market, you need to listen to an expert, not an investment banker. We specialize primarily in gold and silver.

India and China are Buying Massive Amounts of Gold and Silver Bullion

A big part of silver’s massive rise comes from a shortage of supplies at the COMEX and other commodity futures trading centers, such as London and Shanghai. Most futures traders never intend to take possession of the metals at the conclusion of the contract – they merely trade the contracts, seeking a rapid short-term profit, either up or down (sellers profit by shorting) – with each metals contract trading up to 30 times before someone takes delivery, but more and more buyers are now demanding the actual metal, creating shortages in some leading trading markets.

Demand for physical silver began early this year, when a major manufacturer of photovoltaic products in India demanded 25 million ounces of silver from the COMEX warehouse. Then, on Thanksgiving Day, when U.S. markets were closed, silver futures investors around the world demanded a total of 36 million ounces of silver for delivery – that’s almost 5% of the annual new silver mining output. This created a problem for short sellers, who couldn’t find physical silver enough to meet those demands, so silver rose 13% in the week we celebrated Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, physical shortages of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange pushed up gold prices as the short sellers faced similar challenges in coming up with physical gold to cover their shorts.

In India, the price and mark-up for gold jewelry remains too high for many middle-class Indian buyers, so more investors are turning to bars and coins. According to Sachin Jain, head of India’s operations for The World Gold Council (WGC), Indian investors purchased $10 billion worth of gold last quarter. While jewelry remains the public’s favorite form of savings – and for display in public – bullion gold has now become a mainstream asset for Indian investors, for the first time.

India’s demand for precious metals is almost certain to climb, as Indian pension funds are now allowed to invest in gold and silver ETFs. Specifically, India’s Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) announced that they revised guidelines for the National and Unified Pension Systems last week to enable pension funds to include gold and silver ETFs.

The WGC reports that gold investment demand in India – the world’s second-largest gold market (to China) – rose 20% (year over year) through the third quarter, as measured in ounces, or +67% in terms of price, according to the WGC – despite a drop in India’s jewelry demand. Jain said, “We believe investors’ interest in gold will continue and grow in the coming quarters.”  He cites exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand in India, at record levels in September, and then a revival in jewelry demand in the fourth quarter, due in part to seasonal festivals and the wedding season.

Global central bankers bought 53 more metric tons of gold in the month of October alone, according to the WGC, with China leading the way. China’s gold reserves are now over 2,300 metric tons, with gold rising from 5.5% of their foreign exchange reserves a year ago, December 2024, to 8.3% of total reserves as of November 2025. Other significant central bank purchases in October were made by the National Bank of Poland, the Central Banks of Brazil, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Turkey, the Czech Republic, Ghana, Kazakhstan, the Philippines and the Kyrgyz Republic.

Also, platinum is rising fast now due to a rising supply deficit, specifically lower mining output, especially in South Africa, combined with surging industrial and jewelry demand, led by China.

In conclusion, gold and silver are now almost certain to close 2025 with their best performing year since 1979, and if these basic supply and demand fundamentals continue, we may see $7,000 gold and $100 silver in 2026, so wise investors will raise their exposure to these metals and add them to their IRAs.

Gold Rose Another $70 last week to set another new all-time high, while silver once again lapped the yellow metal, rising $6 (+10%), from $61 to $67 per ounce, another all-time high. But silver wasn’t done. It moved past $69 an ounce early Monday. Perhaps, the biggest surprise came from platinum, gaining 15% on the week to pierce $2,000 per ounce, up 126% year-to-date, and up $500 (+33%) in the last 30 days. Palladium is up even more in December, +18% in the past week and +99% year-to-date. Remember, this rise in precious metals is all happening while the three major stock market indexes (the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) are down for December, month-to-date.  

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