January 2026 - Week 1 Edition

Year-End Review: 2025 Delivered a Major Precious Metals Bonanza

Even the Wall Street pundits are impressed. When listing the top investment of 2025, “Investopedia” listed 44 leading investments – stock indexes, bonds, commodities and currencies – and all of the top five spots were allotted to metals.  The year just past, will go down as the largest rise in silver and gold since 1979.

The Top 5 Investments of 2025

#1-SILVER: +146.0%
#2-Platinum: +128.7%
#3-Palladium: +81.4%
#4-GOLD: +64.3%
#5-Copper: +41.8%

(For a list of all 44 investments, see: Investopedia.com)

The Top 5 Stock Market Indexes

#1-Nikkei 225 (Japan): +26.2%
#2-German DAX Index: +23.0%
#3-U.S. NASDAQ 100 +20.2%
#4-S&P 500 Index: +16.4%
#5-Dow Jones Industrials: +13.0%

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 10% in 2025, so most of the world’s top currencies gained 5% to 15%:

The Top 5 Major Currencies in 2025

#1-The Swiss Franc: +14.5%
#2-The EURO: +13.5%
#3-Australian Dollar: +7.8%
#4-British Pound: +7.7%
#5-Canadian Dollar: +4.7%

Inflation came in a lot lower than expected in 2025, with the five “worst” investments (as reported by Investopedia) representing dramatically lower prices for food and energy, two major consumer needs:

2025 “Worst” Investments That Also Delivered Low Inflation in 2025

#1-Orange Juice: -58.7%
#2-Cocoa: -47.5%
#2-Rice: -31.9%
#3-Sugar: -22.5%
#4-Crude Oil: -20.0%
#5-Milk: -18.9%

All in all, 2025 was a bonanza year for precious metals investors. Can this trend continue in 2026? Yes. The fundamentals of supply and demand are firmly established and may even improve in 2026. Based on what I am seeing in the markets, silver will experience another year of production shortages, which will likely lead to continued price growth. That doesn’t even take into account the restrictions placed on silver exports by China, which are said to be enforced for the next two years, according to multiple financial news outlets, including the South China Morning Post, Reuters and CNBC.

As for gold, it goes without saying that the future should be very positive as nations around the world continue to add to their reserves, including Poland, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Guatemala and China. America still has exponentially more gold on hand, with 8,133 metric tons in reserve, than any country in the world. The next closest is China with 2,303 metric tons and then the numbers fall to hundreds of tons for other countries, according to a third-quarter report published by the World Gold Council in December. It will be very interesting to see gold investment figures by country once the final numbers for 2025 are made public.

I still see strong growth for gold and I can make a case for gold rising to $7,000 an ounce over the next couple of years. I believe strongly that gold will reach well over $5,000 in 2026.

After Silver’s Historic Run in 2025 – Can Silver Reach $100 or More in 2026?

Spot silver prices briefly spiked above $80 (silver actually reached $83.62 at one point during last Monday's trading session, before falling over 10% to $75.32 by Tuesday). That sudden decline had all the earmarks of institutional accounts taking profits to declare year-end portfolio gains, for there is a new supply shortage supporting another silver surge, centered around China’s goal of limiting silver exports. 

The global silver market had already been running a structural deficit for almost five years, turning an already short supply into a drought, thereby delivering 146% gains in 2025.  Now, the new limit on exports from China will create an even tighter market, causing shortages in silver, since China is the world’s second largest silver producer. China also accounts for roughly 65% of the global trade of refined silver. As of January 1, 2026, up to 70% of that silver supply will require special approval from the Beijing government before it can be exported. China has limited silver exports to only 44 government-approved companies. Limitations have also been placed on tungsten and antimony. Tungsten is an incredibly hard metal and is used in semiconductors and metal cutting tools. Antimony is used to produce nuclear weapons, semiconductors and as a hardening agent for other metals. China claims its decisions are being made from a “national security” interest.

In 2024, China was the world’s second-largest silver producer, delivering about 3,300 metric tons, representing roughly 13% of global production. Since China mines many metals without much consideration for environmental considerations, their newly mined silver is mostly a byproduct of lead, zinc and copper mining rather than primary silver mines, and China also dominates refining, processing and export flows.

Even before China’s latest move, the U.S. had already added silver to its list of critical minerals, and now Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk has criticized China’s export limits, reminding us of silver’s critical role in several industrial uses, including electronics, batteries, solar panels, medical instruments and defense equipment.

“This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes,” Musk posted on X.

For these and other reasons, we see $100 silver and up to $7,000 gold in the year to come.

Metals had a spectacular 2025 despite correcting in price during the last few days of the year. In the short week after Christmas, Gold fell from $4,550 to $4,325 (-5%) and silver fell from a peak over $80 to $71 (-12%) but like the previous price correction in late October, this is good news.  The dip, which is primarily due to profit-taking now gives the metals some “breathing room” for their next move up. In October, we urged investors to “buy on dips,” and that advice worked out well, as the precious metals rallied in November and December. Due to long-term fundamentals that emerged in 2025, we should see continued dramatic gains during 2026.

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