July 2026 - Week 3 Edition
“America 250” Can Deliver a New Rare Coin Bull Market – Just Like the Bicentennial Did in 1976
History shows us that past 50-year anniversaries of America’s founding in 1776 have created a strong increase in collector and investor interest in the rare coin market. That’s what happened in 1976, during America’s bicentennial celebration and 50 years before in 1926. Now, the same is happening again.
Part of this boom comes from the gorgeous array of new coins minted for these celebrations – as we first saw in the Roaring Twenties period in 1926 and once again during the start of gold’s first major surge – from $104 per ounce in the late summer of 1976 to $850 in early 1980.
In 1926, we saw Republican President Calvin Coolidge featured on the “sesquicentennial” (150th birthday) of America, in silver coin form. Now, we have seen a new array of gorgeous and historical new coins for America’s 250th anniversary – our “semi-quincentennial.” They have rapidly sold out and more new issues are on the way.
One new 2026 coin is a unique Liberty Bell-shaped $250 face-value, one-ounce .9999 gold coin and a companion $125 1/2-ounce .9999 gold coin, plus a 1/2-ounce .999 silver medal. Those new products, along with a circulating legal-tender $1 golden coin featuring President Donald J. Trump, will definitely pique new interest in rare coins. The new coin will be composed of 88.5 percent copper, 6 percent zinc, 3.5 percent manganese and 2 percent nickel. And, despite allegations from the dissident press objecting to the President’s face on the coin, it is not illegal to put a living person on a U.S. coin, nor is it unprecedented.
The skeptics need to look at history, in which we find up to five living politicians and other leaders on U.S.-minted legal-tender commemorative coins. For instance, Eunice Shiver, a Democrat who was very much alive in 1995, was on a coin commemorating the 1995 Special Olympics World Games. Also, President Coolidge was alive and in office when he was featured on the 1926 Sesquicentennial of American Independence half-dollar. We have also seen three other living Democrats on legal-tender commemorative coins, including two senators – Carter Glass of Virginia and Joseph Robinson of Arkansas – and the Democrat governor of Alabama, Thomas Kilby. They were all in the office when their non-circulating legal-tender commemorative coins were released.
Even though laws were in place for living persons on non-circulating legal tender commemorative coins, in the case of the new President Trump coin celebrating America’s semiquincentennial, a new law was introduced specifically addressing America’s 250th birthday. That law allows this honor and is codified in U.S. Code 31 §5112, which authorizes the production of a circulating coin with legal tender status. Again, it is specifically related to America 250 and can only be made in 2026. The legislation was introduced by California democrat Barbara Lee, D-CA, in H.R. 1923 of the 116th Congress and approved with overwhelming bipartisan support.
The actual bill reads, “SEC. 3. ISSUANCE OF REDESIGNED CIRCULATING COINS EMBLEMATIC OF THE UNITED STATES SEMIQUINCENTENNIAL. Section 5112 of title 31, United States Code, is amended by adding at the end the following new subsection: ‘‘(y) REDESIGN AND ISSUANCE OF COINS EMBLEMATIC OF THE UNITED STATES SEMIQUINCENTENNIAL.— ‘‘(1) REDESIGN BEGINNING IN 2026.— ‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.— ‘‘(i) Notwithstanding the 4th, 5th, and 6th sentences of subsection (d)(1), the Secretary may change the design on any of the coins authorized under this section and minted for issuance during the one-year period beginning January 1, 2026, in celebration of the United States semiquincentennial. ‘‘(ii) Notwithstanding the 2nd and 3rd sentences of subsection (d)(1), the Secretary may place the required inscriptions on either the obverse or reverse sides of the coins authorized for redesign under this subsection.”
Maybe, if liberal media outlets decrying the new coin as “illegal” and allowing uninformed so-called experts to foment hate with their comments had done a little bit of research, they too could have found the applicable law allowing for President Trump’s image to be placed on this coin and that there was a precedent. In fact, the score to date is four living Democrats on legal tender coins to one Republican.
More great coins are also on tap from the Mint, coming in the fall of 2026. This means 2026 will be a banner year for the U.S. Mint, bringing in new customers to the coin market. In 1976, new coins helped launch one of the largest bull markets for collectible coins in U.S. history.
Upon notification that the U.S. Mint would actually be a coin featuring President Trump, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent posted on the X platform, “As America commemorates 250 years of independence, the @usmint will begin striking this new $1 gold coin to honor the enduring legacy of liberty and a lasting symbol of patriotism. Featuring President Trump, it celebrates the strength of American values, and the promise of a nation dedicated to preserving freedom for all.”
Our Regular Mid-Month Review of Deficits and Inflation – As of June 30, 2026
Since the federal government releases its two major inflation measures – and the volume of deficit spending in the previous month – around the 12th to 15th day of each month, we can bring you the summary of those two key financial measures.
These measures are vital for understanding the reasons why gold has greatly eclipsed the dollar – especially since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard nearly 55 years ago, in August 1971.
First, here is a review of deficit spending in Fiscal 2026, through June 30th, 2026:
Each federal fiscal year begins October 1st and ends September 30th, so we now have nine of 12 months of Fiscal Year 2026, and the volume of red ink continues to be troubling, especially for a time of high economic growth and rising tax receipts. The United States borrowed $1.4 trillion in the first nine months of Fiscal Year 2026, including $120 billion in June, according to the latest Monthly Treasury Statement from the Treasury Department – that’s a near-$2 trillion annual rate.
Current projections point to another $2 trillion deficit in FY 2026, which is 5.8% of U.S. GDP, about double the debt-to-GDP ratio in major developed economies in Europe or Canada. Not only are we borrowing at a breakneck pace but Congress has shown no sign of wishing to cut any major portion of its spending increases. Major “entitlement” trust funds (like Medicare and Social Security) are facing insolvency, mostly due to the fact that our labor force growth has fallen due to fewer young workers seeking employment, staying single and not having children. Social Security and Medicare rely almost wholly on taxing current workers to fund these plans.
These continuing irresponsible federal deficits represent one of the main reasons gold will keep rising.
Consumer and Producer Price Inflation Decline – for Now
On Tuesday, July 14th, we learned the Consumer Price Index fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in June but the annual inflation rate is still +3.5%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat (0.0%) and up 2.6% for the past 12 months. The biggest cause for this expected decline was a rapid decline in energy prices in June. However, we must point out that the new hostilities in Iran have caused a resumption of the rise in crude oil prices in July.
On Wednesday, the June Producer Price Index (PPI) also fell by 0.3%, due primarily to sharply lower energy costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On an annual basis, the PPI still delivered a robust +5.5% 12-month inflation rate. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2% and the “expanded” core PPI (excluding trade services) rose 0.1% – up 5.1% over the last 12 months. Gasoline prices were off 12%, accounting for most of the monthly decrease.
We must now await the July inflation readings to be released in mid-August. During June, the price of a barrel of oil fell from $92.16 (June 1) to $68.58 (July 1), a decline of more than 25%, hence the overall decline of the headline inflation numbers. However, that same barrel of oil now trades for $80, up nearly 17% in the first two weeks of July. This increase, if it continues, may result in a massive reversion to higher inflation rates in the July price indexes.
Gold and silver are maddeningly flat so far in July but stocks have also been flat lately. In the first two weeks of July, gold is up a modest 0.8% and silver is down 1.1%, while the S&P 500 is up just 0.6%, the NASDAQ is down 0.4% and the Dow is the best performer at +3.6%. But since the start of 2022, silver is up 152% and gold is up 121% vs. 58% for the S&P and 44% for the Dow. So, both of the major metals have more than doubled stock gains since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
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