April 2025 - Week 4 Edition

Gold Soars Over $3,400 While the Dow Dips by Another 1,000 Points

​On April 21, the Monday after Easter, gold soared by over $100 to $3,430 while the Dow fell by 1,300 points at its low point. It then rallied slightly before closing down 972 points in a continuation of the same powerful trend for 2025, magnified during April, of gold rising and most stocks falling.

As our price tables at the end of this report show, gold is up 30% so far this year, while both major stock indexes are down by double digits. This is also true of the 25-year trend of gold up 1,080% vs. 251% for the S&P 500 and 232% for the Dow.  The same wide division is true since COVID-19 hit in 2020 and since the Russia/Ukraine war began in 2022, with gold up 87% vs. 8% for the S&P 500 and 5% for the Dow. Silver is in the middle, usually doubling any stock market gains.

Gold first pierced the $3,000 barrier on March 17th, so gold has only been above $3,000 for five weeks, yet gold is now approaching our maximum high forecast of $3,500 for the full year.

Longer-term, the price of gold in April 2015, a decade ago, was only $1,200, so gold has almost tripled in a decade. Adjusted for inflation, that $1,200 price is equal to $1,620 in today’s dollars, so gold has more than doubled in “real” dollars (after inflation) over the past 10 years.  What’s most amazing is that gold has almost doubled since we met to collaborate with Steve Forbes in October of 2023, when gold was under $1,900 per ounce, and we predicted it would reach $2,500 in 2024.

It turns out Forbes was unnecessarily cautious and my bold predictions came true, as gold reached $2,740 by October 2024.

President Trump Supports the Second Amendment

This week began with “Patriots’ Day” in Boston, celebrating the 250th anniversary of the “Shot Heard ‘Round the World” in Lexington and Concord on April 19, 1775. It was an earth-shattering event that didn’t get enough press coverage over the weekend – since it was really the birth of America – perhaps just as much as July 4, 1776, when 56 brave men collected signatures on paper for their Declaration of Independence the following year. The Minutemen of Massachusetts put their lives on the line to defend their right to bear arms during a British “gun control” siege.

This British gun seizure attempt was planned the day before the battle, when British General Thomas Gage issued an order to march against the patriot arsenal at Concord and to capture John Adams and John Hancock. The two men were thought to be hiding in Lexington but Paul Revere and William Dawes rode on horseback through the night alerting the Minutemen to defend their arms before the British Attempt to Take Firearms (BATF) could surprise the Patriots and confiscate their arsenal at Concord.

Nobody knows who fired the first shot but at the end of that April 19th battle, the British suffered 73 killed and 200 wounded vs. 49 dead and 46 wounded for the colonists. Paul Revere’s horse was also commandeered, so he had to walk home, creating the first “Boston Marathon,” which is still run 250 years later, on or near Patriot’s Day. I’m happy to report that three American men and two American women finished in the Top 10 of this Monday’s Boston Marathon (that seldom happens) and an American woman, Susannah Scaroni, won their wheelchair division.

In conjunction with the 250th anniversary of Patriots’ Day, the Trump Department of Justice announced this past week the creation of a Second Amendment Task Force, which will help ongoing efforts to protect and promote Second Amendment rights nationwide.

Attorney General Pam Bondi has pledged the “full might” of the U.S. Department of Justice behind this effort, sending a letter to all DOJ employees stating the Biden-Harris administration “placed an undue burden on gun owners and vendors by targeting law-abiding citizens exercising their 2nd Amendment rights.”  In his first 100 days, President Donald Trump has already taken several actions to restore gun rights to Americans.

Precious metals are up over 16% in two weeks. The May 2025 silver contract on COMEX has recovered from a low of $28.31 on Monday, April 7th to an opening high of $33.10 on Monday, April 21 (+16.9%), while the June 2025 Gold contract rose from $2,950 to $3,442 in the same two weeks, up 16.3%. During the same time period, stocks are up 4.3% (Dow) and 6.7% (S&P 500).

Metals Market Report Archive >