Metals Market Report Archive
Metals Market Report 03-11-2015

The Mike Fuljenz Metals Market Report

March 2015, Week 2 Edition


Gold prices fell on Friday due to a better-than-expected jobs report, which led analysts to assume that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates sooner than expected, but that assumption is likely (once again) to be wrong, since the details of the jobs report show the lowest Labor Participation Rate in 37 years, since March, 1978.  That means 92.9 million American adults were not even looking for a job.  In addition, the raw data shows a job decrease but “seasonal adjustment” turned it into an increase.  Also, many new jobs are part-time and the average wage rate increased only 3-cents (0.1%), hardly good news.

Common Sense Analyst Points to $1,255 Average Gold Price in 2015

Martin Murenbeeld, the chief economist of Canada’s Dundee Capital Markets is “a little biased to the gold side” but he is not blind to the case against gold.  Speaking at the recent 2015 PDAC International Convention, Trade Show & Investors Exchange, Murenbeeld outlined the pros and cons affecting gold:

 Bearish Factors for Gold

  • Fed tightening monetary policy
  • Firm US dollar
  • Sluggish world economy
  • The S&P 500 stock index is competing with gold
  • Substantial ETF tonnage still in vaults (and could be sold off) 

Bullish Factors for Gold

  • Expanded Asian physical demand
  • Central banks buying gold 
  • Worsening global debt crisis
  • Overvalued US dollar
  • Increased geopolitical/financial crises
  • ETF demand returning
  • Commodity cycle

Murenbeeld’s most optimistic scenario puts gold at $1355 (average) for 2015, with a worst-case scenario of $1080.  His middle-of-the-road scenario puts gold at an average of $1,240 for the year.   Murenbeeld weighed all the pros and cons on his list and predicted an average of $1,255 for the London price in 2015. 

However, if some of the “bearish factors” change, gold could go much higher – like if the Fed fails to raise rates, if the dollar stops rising, if stocks start falling, or if gold ETFs start buying rather than selling.

New Type III Double Eagle Book Desired by Dealers

My new book on Type III Double Eagles, to be released by April 2015, should increase demand for coins in this series. In 2000 my first edition about this popular series received the Numismatic Literary Guild Investment Book of the Year Award further boosting interest in double eagles. There will be some gorgeous photographs and innovative tools in this new edition that should greatly help collectors, investors and dealers who participate in this popular series. At a recent California convention some major dealers asked me for boxes of these books as soon as possible.  



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